Cleeve Hurdle review and Stayers Hurdle implications: Andy Gibson reflects
The surprise Cleeve Hurdle win of French raider Gold Tweet put some question marks over a few Cheltenham Stayers Hurdle candidates, leading racing analyst Andy Gibson to examine the race more closely.
Will he stay three miles in a faster race?
This looked a super smooth success as Gold Tweet travelled especially well throughout before easily picking up the eventual runner-up on the run down to the final hurdle.
The French horse won with something to spare and so it will be interesting to see whether he will be supplemented for the Stayers Hurdle on the back of this success.
As good as he looked here, we must remember that this was a slowly run race with a sprint finish from before the second last hurdle.
Whether Gold Tweet will stay three miles in a quicker Stayers Hurdle remains an unknown variable.
Another solid performance from the runner-up
Dashel Drasher's jockey tried to steal the race when quickening before two out off what was a relatively slow pace in the first half of the contest.
This notion is supported by his hurdle-to-hurdle time comparisons with Rocky My Way, who won the novice event that followed.
Dashel Drasher is now available at 25/1 for the Stayers Hurdle which is a huge overreaction given how many doubtful runners and stayers there are ahead of him in the ante-post market.
I don't see him as the most likely winner in March, but I would still suggest that he has a very good chance of picking up a fair bit of prize money.
Dashel Drasher is reliable and consistent and could remain competitive until the latter stages on the third day of the Cheltenham Festival.
The horse most likely to improve in March
Paisley Park is generally a horse I like to oppose of late due to the market often overestimating his chances of success, but after his third-place finish in the Cleeve Hurdle, I am now tending the other way for his Stayers Hurdle claims.
His odds of 14/1 simply do not consider the likelihood of him having the third or fourth best chance on the day.
The fact that he was travelling well before the pace quickened two out was a sure sign that they had not gone quickly enough for him in the Cleeve Hurdle.
Hopefully Paisley Park will be under heavy driving to stay in touch at this same point of the race in March, and given this scenario, he should stay on better than most and finish thereabouts in the Stayers Hurdle.
Rest of the field
For the second time in a row, Botox Has dropped out very quickly, before plodding on again when it was all over, and one would guess we will see him with some form of headgear on the next time we see him.
The Dan Skelton-trained mare, Molly Ollys Wishes, was still racing in an overly keen manner on the approach to the second last hurdle. I am not convinced that she stays this three-mile trip, but she gave herself even less chance of lasting home the way she travelled through much of the race.
Presumably we will see more from Lord Accord when he returns to chasing on a softer surface next time out.
Finally, I think it is fair to suggest that Gelino Bello's major error three out ended any chances he may have had at that point of the race.
I am not sure he was travelling well enough at the time anyway, but either way he still has something to prove to be competitive at this level over hurdles.