Ascot best bet: Three-time winner New Image ticks all the right boxes

3:00 Ascot: Moet & Chandon International Stakes (7 furlongs)

We had a decent result with Mostly Sunny running on to be fourth last weekend for a small profit, but sadly no cigar. 

This weekend we are focusing on the big-field International Stakes at Ascot, which is a challenging handicap that usually produces a winner much better than handicap level.

As always, we are using the trends below to reduce the field of eighteen runners to a more manageable number:

• 21/21 – Ran within the last 5 weeks 
• 21/21 – Had raced at Ascot previously 
• 19/21 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger 
• 17/21 – Carried 8-9 or more in weight 
• 16/21 – Won over 7f previously 
• 16/21 – Won between 2-4 times previously 
• 14/21 – Favourites unplaced 
• 14/21 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less 
• 13/21 – Winners that came from outside the top three in the market 
• 12/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the market 
• 11/21 – Aged 4 years-old 
•   9/21 – Raced at Ascot last time out 
•   7/21 – Raced at Newmarket last time out 
•   5/21 – Won their last race 
•   3/21 – Trained by the Johnston yard 
•   3/21 – Winning favourites (2 of the last 4)
•   2/21 – Trained by Clive Cox Trainer 
• 15/17 – Ran at Ascot, Newmarket or Haydock last time out 
• 13/17 – Came from double-figure stall 
• 10/17 – Finished in top 5 last time out 
•   3/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey 

Make Me King carries top weight and a three-pound penalty for winning his last race, which was a decent handicap at Newmarket, before which he ran well to finish eighth in the Buckingham Palace Stakes. 

His task here is difficult with the weight rise and the low draw, but he has finished second in Group 2 company, so has the potential to be much better than a handicapper.

Orazio is yet to win over the trip, which is a negative, but he does possess a touch of class and was third in the Wokingham over six furlongs at Royal Ascot. 

He has only had 12 runs, winning three on various types of going. I prefer horses running in seven-furlong races to be capable of running well over further, so Orazio has a challenging task here.

Divine Libra ran 10th in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket last time and has had eight top-three finishes in 14 career starts, but has probably paid for that consistency by moving up the weights. 

Two of his three wins have been at Chester, which suggests he is suited to tighter tracks than the wide Ascot straight. Divine Libra has not won above Class 3, so he will need a career-best performance to win this tough handicap.

New Image has already won three times this season and has seen his mark increase accordingly. He does have to improve to win again, but does have the benefit of Mark Winn taking off three pounds. 

I do like the fact that David O’Meara’s four-year-old is bred to stay further than seven furlongs and he meets most of the race trends, so although there are always multiple threats in these big-field handicaps, I am suggesting an each-way bet on New Image here.

As always, please be sure to look around for extra places and best prices with bookmakers.

Suggested best bet: New Image each-way in the 15:00 at Salisbury