China Open tips: In-form Yannik Paul ready to bounce back from Japan setback

Volvo China Open key stats:

• When: May 2-5 2024
• Where: Hidden Grace Golf Club, Shenzhen, China
• How long: 7,147 yards - par 71
• What to expect: Generous fairways but 12 water hazards challenge the back nine, so a second-shot approach course
• Who won last year: Not part of DP World Tour

The Volvo China Open is a co-sanctioned event with the Asian Tour, and the course was last visited by the then European Tour in 2019, when Finnish golfer Mikko Korhonen beat Frenchman Jeremy Hebert in a play-off.

The wide-open nature of this contest is illustrated by the presence of three co-favourites at 16/1 – Tom McKibbin, Sebastian Soderberg and Jordan Smith, although we’re happy to swerve the Englishman, who features on most leaderboards at some point, but struggles to convert.

McKibbin is the highest rated and therefore arguably the best golfer in this field, and he will be keen to add to the European Open that he won last June. 

The Northern Irishman has been in decent form with seven top-25 finishes (three top-10s) and just one missed cut in his last eight starts.

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Soderberg has not missed a cut all year and his five top-10 finishes include back-to-back runner-up spots in the Indian Open and last week’s ISPS Handa Championship.

His form means that his odds are tightening with every passing week, which in turn reduces the level of value in selecting him.

Just below the favourites at around 20/1 we find Yannik Paul of Germany, who has been patchy this season and really needs to get back on the contending trail on tour. 

Suggested bet: Yannik Paul (20/1) each-way in the China Open

Two top-ten finishes either side of a missed cut in the early-season Middle East swing was a promising start to a season that has tailed off since.

His tenth place at the Indian Open a month ago was a step back in the right direction, and Paul looked like building on that form in Japan last week, until a six-over-par final round sent him spiralling down to 34th, when just a par round would have seen him tie for third spot. 

That Sunday implosion aside, Paul’s game has clearly been in good shape for the previous seven rounds, and if he can replicate that then he could be worth a flutter.

At similar odds, more potential value lies with Bernd Wiesberger, who won on this course in 2017, and whose form is gradually picking up since returning to the DP Tour from his short-lived LIV adventure. 

Without threatening the top ten, the Austrian has enjoyed respectable finishes all year, apart from his solitary missed cut, and he looks close to winning his continuing battle with his putter. 

Wiesberger may be revitalised by visiting a course on which he has enjoyed past success, and at 20/1 he could be a worthwhile bet in a wide-open tournament of this nature.

Suggested bet: Bernd Wiesberger (20/1) each-way in the China Open

Others to watch:

• Joost Luiten (33/1) - Six Tour wins to his name, including in Asia, his skill set and experience could be useful in this modest field
• Matthew Southgate (66/1) - Still seeking his maiden Tour success, he has enjoyed a number of placed finishes, and one weekend he will make a mockery of the huge odds at which he is offered
• Matthias Schwab (90/1) - Began the season with four missed cuts, but has since strung together six top-45 finishes and looks like he could be knocking on the door of a frame finish

Suggested bet summary:

• Yannik Paul (18/1) - 1 point each-way
• Bernd Wiesberger (20/1) - 1 point each-way

 

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