US PGA Championship 2023: Usual suspects set to dominate at Oak Hill
- Brendan Skilling
- 16 May 2023
All golfing eyes turn to Oak Hill this week, when the world’s best golfers will contest the second Major of the season. Golf pundit Brendan Skilling (who runs19th Hole on Tipstrr) takes a closer look.
The second golf Major of the year is now the USPGA Championship, which switched from its traditional August slot to the middle of May a couple of years ago.
This year's venue is Oak Hill, situated in Rochester in upstate New York. Undoubtedly one of the premier courses in the country, it has hosted both the US Open and PGA, the Senior and amateur versions plus the Ryder Cup.
It last hosted this event in 2013, when Jason Dufner held off Jim Furyk to win by 2 shots. The appearance of both Dufner and Furyk at the top of that leaderboard suggests a track that looks favourably on shorter hitters and those who like to plot their way around the course.
However, the course has changed dramatically since 2013, with a seven-year restoration project including two new holes and the removal of over 600 trees, while the raised and heavily-contoured green complexes and shaved run-off areas now more closely resemble the original vision of the architect Donald Ross.
Suggested bet: Rory McIlroy each-way in the US PGA Championship
Bentgrass playing surfaces, thick rough and strategic, penal bunkering also await the field throughout its par-70 7,400 yards, a similar length to the other Major Championship venues. With the likelihood of cool and damp conditions here, especially in the mornings, it will play significantly longer so distance from the tee will be a big factor, more so than at any of the other venues this year.
For those looking for a comparison of courses, Bethpage Black, host of the 2019 USPGA and 2020 US Open venue Winged Foot are similar upstate New York 'classical' style, long and tough Major Championship golf course design.
Justin Thomas defends his title here after lifting The Wanamaker Trophy for the second time at Southern Hills in Oklahoma last year.
There are no surprises at the top of the betting with Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler sharing favouritism. However, with Rahm chasing the rare feat of back-to-back Major wins and Scheffler's continuing below-par putting performances, third-favourite
Rory McIlroy is preferred. He arrives here slightly under the radar after a missed cut at the Masters and a poor showing in the Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow, but he has bounced back numerous times to win high-profile events after missing cuts.
The course and conditions couldn't be set up better for him here, he's an honorary member of Oak Hill, his wife is from Rochester and the Northern Irishman can end his nine-year wait for a Major title this week.
Such is the strength of men's golf at the moment, there are around 20 players at 30/1 or less in the betting markets and it's highly likely the winner will come from this group.
Only Kurt Kitayama (200/1) at the Arnold Palmer and Wyndham Clark (60/1) at the Wells Fargo have bucked this trend of high-profile winners of big events in the last 12 months.
I gave serious consideration to Xander Schauffele, a serial major contender with seven top 10's in 12 starts this year, although I feel
Patrick Cantlay and
Tony Finau have a better chance this week.
Suggested bet:
Patrick Cantlay each-way in the US PGA Championship
Cantlay's consistency from tee to green this year has him up at the top of the strokes gained categories, and he has a fantastic record on classical style golf courses.
He is arguably the best Bentgrass putter in the world, with his third place at Bethpage Black in the 2019 PGA a standout piece of form.
Finau meanwhile is now a serial winner on tour, including a win at the Donald Ross-designed Detroit Golf Club.
While his driving length and accuracy have always been a strong part of his game, his approach play has reached another level this year and his high ball flight is perfect for attacking the raised greens here at Oak Hill.
Suggested bet:
Tony Finau each-way in the US PGA Championship
