US PGA Tour golf tips: Gary Woodland could outdrive Jon Rahm to Mexico Open victory
- Brendan Skilling
- 26 April 2023
While all eyes will be on newly crowned Masters Champion Jon Rahm, golf expert Brendan Skilling is looking elsewhere for value with his betting tips for the Mexico Open.
The PGA Tour takes a trip south of the border this week for the Mexico Open at Vidanta, one of only a handful of Tour events that take place outside of the United States.
Suggested bets
Verdict
Most of the game's elite have taken the week off in preparation for the bigger prizes that lie in wait, which does mean a weaker field. Despite that, we will be treated to seeing Masters champion and world number one Jon Rahm.
The Vidanta Nuevo Vallarta Resort is hosting the Mexico Open for the second consecutive year. It's a typically modern, coastal resort course designed by Greg Norman.
With no shortage of water hazards, large sandy wastelands and patches of indigenous vegetation, it should keep the players on their toes.
Despite that, the fairways are generously wide, meaning even some more wayward drivers of the ball shouldn't have many problems with keeping the ball in play.
We're on paspalum-grassed surfaces here, comparable to others in the region, which means slower greens and better lies in the rough.
If it's starting to sound like a nice, easy weekend down in Mexico for our golfers, then think again. This course is a brutal par 71 measuring a total of 7,456 yards.
It isn't just the length from the tee that presents a challenge, as 40% of the approaches on this course are from 180 yards or more, which is the most challenging on the tour.
The course is typified by a couple of Par 4's over 500 yards and an eye-watering 637-yard Par 5 on the 12th hole. It's all about distance this week.
Understandably, defending champion Jon Rahm is the favourite to win here, although he would have to buck a trend going back to 2010 that has not seen a Masters Champion follow up success at Augusta with another win so soon after.
He's best left alone at such a skinny price and with Planet Sport Bet offering 6 places, there's a real chance we can land a large each-way finisher. Tony Finau could merit consideration, but his form has dropped off and his odds aren't particularly appealing.
One of the betting favourites is the big hitter
Gary Woodland. His best is considerably better than anyone else in the field outside of Rahm and Finau, as he ranks 9th for total driving distance.
A prodigious driver of the ball, he has the requisite form on coastal tracks with his 2019 US Open win at Pebble Beach and arrives here after a 14th place at Augusta, his best-ever Masters finish.
Patton Kizzire looks undervalued in this sort of field. With a number of PGA Tour maidens in the line-up, Kizzire is a proven winner. His two tour wins are a nice fit here, with The Sony Open at a coastal course in Hawaii and another at nearby Mayakoba both on paspalum surfaces.
Lanto Griffen is another player to consider because he has the length and requisite accuracy from distance and has an excellent record at longer courses, including 15th here last year.
Finally, if you're after a real outsider at a massive price, then
Trevor Cone is your man. He has spent most of his career on the Korn Ferry Tour where they tend to play on paspalum more often.
He ranks in the top 10 for driving distance and above average for both approaches and putting this year. He's as big as 400/1 at some bookmakers and may be worth a small wager in Mexico.
