Italian Open tips: Nicolai Hojgaard and Adrian Meronk set to dominate but the Scots could have a say
- Martin Colwell
- 2 May 2023
This week the DP World Tour returns to Europe for the DS Automobiles Italian Open and Tipstrr golf pundit Martin Colwell has been weighing up where the best betting value might be found.
A par 71 and 7,255 yards in length, the Marco Simone course is well stocked with water hazards and tricky contoured greens. The signature eighteenth hole is a testing 597 yards long, and the course should prove a fitting venue for this tournament and for the Ryder Cup in September.
The top of the betting market is tight at the moment, with five golfers hovering between 18/1 and 20/1, including the last two winners of this tournament, Robert Macintyre and Nicolai Hojgaard.
The Danish star has been playing on the USPGA Tour recently and has been doing himself justice across the pond, and he appears to hold the edge among the market leaders this week.
Suggested bet: Nicolai Hojgaard each-way in the Italian Open
Robbie Mac failed to capitalise on a shared lead at the 54-hole stage as he struggled with his short game and a poor start on Sunday put him out of contention.
Just below the two favourites we have Rasmus Hojgaard, Victor Perez and Adrian Meronk.
Rasmus Hojgaard has struggled to reach the level of his twin brother and his game has been slightly off after having some injury issues to contend with.
Victor Perez is a top ball striker but can be inconsistent, although he too should be suited by the style and set-up of this course.
Meronk is another golfer who has been playing well in the U.S. and although his game was a bit in and out last week in Korea, he will no doubt be pleased to get back to a European style course and could well feature prominently in Italy.
Suggested bet:
Adrian Meronk each-way in the Italian Open
All of the five players mentioned above will be keen to impress this week at a venue that can be seen as something for an audition for a place in the European Ryder Cup team.
While I like those towards the top of the market this week, I have an inkling for three golfers at bigger odds.
Ewen Ferguson is a regular contender for top ten finishes on the tour. I see no reason why this course does not suit him and so the 50/1 available each way appears decent enough.
Suggested bet:
Ewen Ferguson each-way in the Italian Open
Ferguson's Scottish compatriot, Callum Hill, also catches the eye as another regular performer on tour with a recent top-three finish that makes his current price seem to offer each-way value here in Italy.
And finally, a golfer who can contend, but also often misses the cut. Rafa Cabrero Bello can blow hot and cold, but if he can make it to Saturday, then a speculative punt at anything between 100/1 and 125/1 could prove fruitful come Sunday evening.
He will relish the return to European soil, and he too may harbour dreams of making the Ryder Cup team, as he once did when he picked up two and a half points in 2016.
