Italian Open tips: Bernd Wiesberger trending towards Tour success, Joe Dean worth an each-way punt

Italian Open key stats:

• When: June 27 - 30 2024
• Where: Adriatic Golf Club, Cervia, Italy
• How long: 6,965 yards - par 70
• What to expect: New Tour venue, short course set in pinewood forest with numerous water hazards
• Who won last year: Adrian Meronk (-13) 

Patrick Reed has a sponsor’s exemption this week and joins us from his journey with LIV Golf, where his form has been middling for most of the year, although he did land a season-best third at the Houston event earlier this month. 

The bookmakers have made Reed 12/1 favourite, which suggests they think that the American will outclass this field, although he is expected to be hard-pressed by Tom McKibbin, who continues to trend with the bookmakers. 

The Northern Irishman is 16/1 after finishing just two shots off the pace in sixth last week in the Netherlands. But are the bookies judging him on potential rather than actual performance at such a low price?

Bernd Wiesberger looks a far stronger 16/1 option after finishing one shot and one place behind McKibbin at last week’s KLM Open, where he recovered well following a sticky start. 

The Austrian had finished tied for second on his previous start at the European Open and is clearly trending on the right trajectory towards adding to his eight DP World Tour successes, one of which was in this event back in 2019, when he held off the strong challenges of Matt Fitzpatrick and Kurt Kitayama

Suggested bet (1): Bernd Wiesberger each-way in the Italian Open

Last week’s KLM victor, Guido Migliozzi,  is now a four-time DP World Tour winner and will have high hopes on his return to his home country, but he can be inconsistent so it is difficult to see him winning two weeks running.

Laurie Canter had to settle for a mid-division finish last week, but he must have a good chance in this field if able to return to the form that landed him the European Open a week after finishing sixth at the Soudal Open.

Jordan Smith hits the ball a long way but whether that will be such an advantage on this course is open to question, not to mention the fact that he has only won once on Tour since 2017. 

Looking deeper in the betting, Rikuya Hoshino may be inconsistent but he has been known to contend on this Tour on his limited number of appearances each year. 

He was fast out of the blocks at the KLM Open, where he carded a first-round 65 on his way to a top-10 finish, and I can see him liking a short course just as much this week.

Suggested bet (2): Rikuya Hoshino each-way in the Italian Open

Others to watch:

• Richard Mansell and Ewen Ferguson (28/1) - Both Brits are Tour stalwarts who are usually in the mix and are never far away from the top 20 come Sunday afternoon
• Johannes Veerman (33/1) - Rated highly by most golf pundits, this is a good opportunity for him to finally reward those plaudits with a positive result
• Niklas Norgaard Moller (45/1) - Top four at the Soudal and European Opens, he has hit some sticky form over the past two weeks, but his current price could be huge if he gets his game back this week
• Joe Dean (75/1) - A potential star in the making, who had a great chance of winning the KLM Open last week before being undone by Migliozzi in a play-off - looks well worth a go at those odds in this field.

Suggested bet (3): Joe Dean each-way in the Italian Open

Suggested bet summary:

• Bernd Wiesberger (16/1) - 3 points each-way
• Rikuya Hoshino (50/1) - 1 point each-way
• Joe Dean (75/1) - 1 point each-way

All listed prices are from Planet Sport Bet and are correct at time of article publication, but could be subject to change

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