Open de France tips: Adrian Otaegui and Rasmus Hojgaard can shine in weakened field

Coincidentally the DP World Tour returns to the venue of Europe’s glorious win in the 2018 Ryder Cup as a prelude to next week’s battle between Europe and USA. 

The Albatros course at Le Golf National is a par 71 at 7,247 yards in length, with six water hazards to negotiate on the way to undulating greens made up of an odd mix of bentgrass and meadow grass.

Guido Migliozzi won a year ago and is 45/1 to defend his title, while Tom Kim has emerged as the 17/2 favourite after a prominent but ultimately fruitless showing at last weekend’s BMW PGA Championship .

Next in the betting is Min Woo Lee at 11/1, although there is a doubt about his credentials on a course like this - his game seems better suited by a links-style course, but time will tell and he stands out as one of the biggest names in this field.

Last week’s PGA winner Ryan Fox is 12/1, a price that would have been much larger without Sunday’s impressive back nine at Wentworth, and although a top player , it’s difficult to see him winning two weeks running. 

Aaron Rai has been in good form all through the USPGA season without converting any of those eye-catching performances into a first win, and he was right on his game again last week. He is another who should relish a course like this, and the only thing against him is his 14/1 price, which seems a little on the short side.

At 18/1, Billy Horschel showed glimpses of hitting some form at Wentworth as he continues his mini European tour, while Alexander Bjork keeps playing well and contending, but can we really have confidence in him at such a price until he gets a win on tour?

Further down the betting it starts getting interesting and a couple in particular have caught my eye, kicking off with 33/1 shot Rasmus Hojgaard, who ultimately let us down last week but is worthy of our continued faith. 

The Dane was runner-up in this tournament last year, eventually losing to a miraculous shot from Guido Migliozzi and although his challenge faded with a five-over-par final round at Wentworth, he has the game to bounce back here.

Suggested bet: Rasmus Hojgaard each-way in the Open de France

 

 

Even more enticing is Adrian Otaegui at 40/1, who is top of the pile for driving accuracy on tour this season, which bodes well for the demands of the Albatros course. 

The Spaniard is also second for scrambling, fourth in strokes gained approach and eighth in strokes gained tee to green, so what a fit he is for this week. 

Otaegui has made the cut in each of his last six tournaments without converting any of his weekend into a concerted challenge, but he also has three top twenties from his last four starts here, so it would not be a surprise to see him in contention on Sunday.

Suggested bet: Adrien Otaegui each-way in the Open de France

Looking for real outsider value, Ewen Ferguson is ultra consistent on tour and contends regularly, and at 66/1 the Scot holds some appeal as decent each-way value.

Right from left-field it might be worth a cautious punt on the talented but serial cut-misser Rafa Cabrero Bello at a juicy 175/1. 

As a former Ryder Cup player who knows this course well he clearly has all the necessary facets in his game, and although he might just as easily fail to get past Friday again, those odds are too enticing to overlook on the off-chance that his game clicks at the right times.

Suggested bet: Rafa Cabrero Bello each-way in the Open de France