3M Open tips: Tony Finau a worthy favourite at TPC Twin Cities

3M Open key stats:

• When: July 25 - 28 2024
• Where: TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, Minneapolis 
• How long: 7,431 yards - par 71
• What to expect: Tree-lined fairways, wide off the tee, 15 water hazards, large greens, usually a low-scoring course 
• Who won last year: Lee Hodges (-24) 

Tony Finau tees off as the clear and justifiable 11/1 favourite this week after winning here in 2022, placing twice previously and looking in good shape so far this year. 

The American can perhaps be excused for missing the cut in the testing conditions at Troon last week, and here he looks to be the best golfer in this field if he can bounce straight back to the form that earned him top ten finishes at the Memorial, the US Open and the Travelers in his three outings prior to the Open.

Suggested bet (1): Tony Finau each-way in the 3M Open

Five points softer in the betting is Sam Burns, who sparkled for a while last week at Troon, where his 65 was the lowest score on Saturday. He was showing improving form before that, but nothing to get excited about, and he faded badly to card a dismal final-round 80 when the pressure mounted on Sunday.

Sahith Theegala (20/1) and Akshay Bhatia (22/1) also both struggled at The Open, but they are excellent ball strikers and conditions here should be much more up their street. 

Emilliano Grillo has not forced his way into the top 20 in 11 outings since finishing eighth in the Arnold Palmer Invitational in early March. 

That said, the Argentinian’s accuracy off the tee and good approach play makes him ideal for the set-up of this course, where he has been placed three times in the past four years.

Suggested bet (2): Emiliano Grillo each-way in the 3M Open

Billy Horschel had his game in great shape at last week’s Open, and took an unexpected lead into the final day at Troon, and impressively carded three straight sub-70 rounds in often brutal conditions.

That performance suggests that he should be peppering the pin for fun round this course, but does that actually disadvantage the popular American, who seems to relish a tougher challenge? He is certainly accurate off the tee and so that goes in his favour here and his 25/1 odds look tasty.

Deeper in the betting Austin Eckroat hits the ball straight and is a good putter. He also has good course form, likes to putt on bentgrass and has won on the Tour already in 2024. His 50/1 price tag could look huge by Sunday evening.

Suggested bet (3): Austin Eckroat each-way in the 3M Open

Luke Clanton has made a great transition from his amateur career to the main Tour, and if he can maintain that form, he can show up here at 25/1. 

Adam Hadwin likes a low-scoring course, has two top-six finishes at this tournament and finished third at The Memorial recently. Put those elements together and 40/1 looks decent value.

Last but not least, we backed Chan Kim at last week’s stableford-based Barracuda Championship, and although he was only able to finish mid-division, we’re happy to keep the faith here.

He has been trending in recent tournaments in terms of his outstanding approach play, only to be let down by his short game when it has come to actually challenging for a win. 

However, a course like this appears to play to his strengths and if able to convert around the green, he looks more than useful each-way value at 55/1.

Suggested bet (4): Chan Kim each-way in the 3M Open

Suggested bet summary:

• Tony Finau (11/1) - 3 points each-way
• Emiliano Grillo (45/1) - 1 point each-way
• Austin Eckroat (50/1) - 1 point each-way
• Chan Kim (55/1) - 1 point each-way

All listed prices are from Planet Sport Bet and are correct at time of article publication, but could be subject to change