US PGA Genesis Invitational tip preview: Sam Ryder in the mix despite huge odds
- Martin Colwell
- 15 February 2023
Tiger Woods hosts a star-studded line-up in the Genesis Invitational but Tipstrr golf pundit Martin Colwell has scanned further down the betting market to pick out the best each-way value at Riviera.
The US PGA Tour returns to California this week, and more specifically to the classical tree-lined Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles, where temperatures are forecast to remain low.
A par 71 and 7,322 yards in length, play is tight off the tee and both driving accuracy and distance will be key here, especially if the wind blows, as can often be the case.
Although there are no water hazards to contend with, the course is defended by deep strategically-placed bunkers that can catch out careless or over-ambitious shots.
Kikuyu grass makes up the fairways and rough, a type that is common in Australia and South Africa as well as in California, and while the rough here is not that tough, finding it will put players out of position or range for their approach shots.
Poa Annua grass make up the undulating greens that are fast and are notoriously difficult to putt on, especially those tricky six footers!
The greens also have shaved run off areas, so the course can get short-game intensive as greens in regulation percentage is comparatively low here, making scrambling skills a must.
Jon Rahm is unsurprisingly 15/2 favourite after winning twice in 2023 already, plus a third place in last week's WM Phoenix Open, even when his game was slightly off.
Not far behind at 9/1 is Rory McIlroy on a course that he says he really likes, unlike last week's TPC Scottsdale, which eventually got the better of him to the tune of finishing 15 shots off the pace.
The European pair are followed in the betting by last week's winner and current Masters champion Scott Scheffler at 10/1. Scheffler looks more than capable of going on a streak as he did this time last year, and if pushed on the front three I would go with the American.
At 14/1 we find Justin Thomas, who finished well on Sunday to end up in fourth spot in Phoenix, albeit after any pressure on him to win had long since disappeared.
Pundits love JT and the bookmakers fear him, but despite being a 2022 Major winner he very rarely seems to get over the line these days.
At 16/1 Xander Schauffele was in contention for much of last week's tournament, before a weak effort on Sunday dropped him into the pack, nine shots behind Scheffler.
Out of this mid-market group, I prefer the chances of the two-time runner-up here, Tony Finau, who was in the top 20 last week, and could do better still at Riviera.
Max Homa and Collin Morikawa are available at 20/1, with Homa catching the eye as a previous winner here, along with two placed finishes, and he tells the tale of having grown up on these surfaces.
Morikawa was runner up here in 2022 to Joachin Niemann, now a LIV golfer. Morikawa is a local boy, who likes plotting his way round a strategic golf course, and he may putt better on POA greens.
Others to consider
Patrick Cantlay has not started 2023 well, but he is now out to 25/1 on a testing golf course, and that should suit his game.
Jordan Speith played very well last week without his putting being good enough to challenge for the win. Like JT, Spieth seems to be another golfer who gets over hyped by U.S. pundits, but he remains a real crowd favourite.
I do like the look of two-time winner Adam Scott at 50/1 here. Riviera should be a good course for an Aussie and these greens do appear to aid his awkward putting stroke.
And a big outsider to conclude on, Sam Ryder, who went close to winning a couple of weeks back and played solidly last week. His huge odds of 175/1 look very appealing for some each way value.
