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US Open 2022: The Europeans most likely to triumph according to the stats

Jon Rahm Northern Trust 2021

Spain’s Jon Rahm took the title at Torrey Pines last year but is he the best-equipped European to win at The Country Club in Brookline this week?

When Tony Jacklin won the US Open at Hazeltine in 1970, no-one could have perceived that it would take another 40 years for another European to lift the trophy.
Graeme McDowell finally ended the drought at Pebble Beach in 2010 and that sparked a golden spell for the Europeans.

Rory McIlroy crushed the field by eight shots at Congressional a year later while Justin Rose (2013) and Martin Kaymer (2014, again by eight strokes) made it four wins in five years for the Europeans.

For a while, the Americans wrestled back control with six straight winners from 2015 but Europe stopped another drought building when Jon Rahm triumphed on the California coastline at Torrey Pines in 2021.

Using six season-long stats that look relevant to the test presented by The Country Club at Brookline this week, Planet Sport tries to unearth Europe's most likely contenders.

In reverse betting order, here are the rankings of Europe's best hopes.

We'll add them up at the end to see who comes out on top (player with the lowest overall score).

Sergio Garcia

Total Driving rank: 54
Strokes Gained Approach: 161
Scrambling from the Rough: 48
Proximity from 175+ yards: 82
All-Around: 58
Bogey Avoidance: 78

Seamus Power

Total Driving rank: 35
Strokes Gained Approach: 103
Scrambling from the Rough: 40
Proximity from 175+ yards: 94
All-Around: 10
Bogey Avoidance: 4

Tyrrell Hatton

Total Driving rank: 175
Strokes Gained Approach: 79
Scrambling from the Rough: 188
Proximity from 175+ yards: 69
All-Around: 51
Bogey Avoidance: 185

Justin Rose

Total Driving rank: 36
Strokes Gained Approach: 91
Scrambling from the Rough: 98
Proximity from 175+ yards: 45
All-Around: 17
Bogey Avoidance: 70

Tommy Fleetwood

Total Driving rank: 85
Strokes Gained Approach: 76
Scrambling from the Rough: 99
Proximity from 175+ yards: 30
All-Around: 39
Bogey Avoidance: 49

Viktor Hovland

Total Driving rank: 2
Strokes Gained Approach: 7
Scrambling from the Rough: 10
Proximity from 175+ yards: 1
All-Around: 20
Bogey Avoidance: 59

Matt Fitzpatrick

Total Driving rank: 38
Strokes Gained Approach: 25
Scrambling from the Rough: 2
Proximity from 175+ yards: 51
All-Around: 59
Bogey Avoidance: 8

Shane Lowry

Total Driving rank: 22
Strokes Gained Approach: 9
Scrambling from the Rough: 42
Proximity from 175+ yards: 3
All-Around: 21
Bogey Avoidance: 3

Jon Rahm

Total Driving rank: 1
Strokes Gained Approach: 22
Scrambling from the Rough: 101
Proximity from 175+ yards: 4
All-Around: 28
Bogey Avoidance: 11

Rory McIlroy

Total Driving rank: 10
Strokes Gained Approach: 20
Scrambling from the Rough: 109
Proximity from 175+ yards: 11
All-Around: 4
Bogey Avoidance: 31

The final scores

99 Victor Hovland
100 Shane Lowry
167 Jon Rahm
183 Matt Fitzpatrick
185 Rory McIlroy
286 Seamus Power
357 Justin Rose
378 Tommy Fleetwood
481 Sergio Garcia
747 Tyrrell Hatton

The order is slightly surprising, with Viktor Hovland and Shane Lowry vying for top spot.

Rahm and McIlroy's numbers are inflated by both being modest scramblers from the rough according to the stats.
Hovland is far better chipping out of rough than from tight lies and he's actually in the top 20 for five of the six categories listed.
Lowry is also strong across the board, ranking 22nd or better in five of the six.
Matt Fitzpatrick splits Rahm and McIlroy and the Sheffield golfer has strong memories of the course having won the US Amateur at The Country Club in 2013.
Seamus Power comes out better than more celebrated European rivals while Tyrrell Hatton's game doesn't look great heading to Massachusetts.

To give a little more context, Scottie Scheffler's total is 228, the figure plumped up by being way down the Scrambling from rough charts.

But as for Justin Thomas, he beats everyone, the newly-crowned US PGA champion scoring just 70. JT ranks 1st for both All-Around and Bogey Avoidance.

READ MORE: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas on what it takes to win the US Open

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