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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am final-round preview: Surging Jordan Spieth set for cliffhanger

Jordan Spieth drives at Pebble Beach

The three-time Major winner sits just one shot back ahead of Sunday’s closer after blasting a brilliant 9-under 63 at Pebble Beach in round three.

Jordan Spieth started day three of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am a whopping 11 shots behind leader Seamus Power.

Thanks to a sparkling 9-under 63, he ended it one clear of the faltering Irishman.
That's the good news. The bad is that others also went low on 'Moving Day' and Spieth has plenty of company on page one of the leaderboard.
The lead is held by a trio of somewhat unheralded Americans: Beau Hossler, Andrew Putnam and Tom Hoge.

Speith shares fourth place with Patrick Cantlay and Joel Dahmen while Power, who started Saturday with a commanding five-shot lead, is now two off the pace after slumping to a 3-over at Monterey Peninsula.

Who's been purring at Pebble?

After sharing hosting honours with Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula for the first three days, Pebble Beach steps forward as the venue for Sunday's closer.

So, a simple way of looking at who might emerge from the leaderboard logjam is to see how the title contenders played Pebble in their one lap there so far.

-15 Beau Hossler - 65 at Pebble (Day 3)
-15 Andrew Putnam - 68 at Pebble (Day 3)
-15 Tom Hoge - 63 at Pebble (Day 1)
-14 Patrick Cantlay - 68 at Pebble (Day 3)
-14 Joel Dahmen - 71 at Pebble (Day 1)
-14 Jordan Spieth - 63 at Pebble (Day 3)
-13 Seamus Power - 64 at Pebble (Day 2)

-11 Jason Day - 68 at Pebble (Day 1)

Positives there for Spieth, Hoge and Power but a negative for Dahmen

Record when in contention

Hossler has twice had a share of the 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour. He went on to finish runner-up at the 2018 Houston Open and seventh at the Shriners.
Putnam has a strong record when leading after three rounds. He converted both times on the Korn Ferry while on the PGA Tour he's bagged one win and two second places from three attempts.

Hoge had a one-shot lead after three laps of the 2018 Sony Open and finished third following a closing 70.

Cantlay has sat one off the lead three times in his PGA Tour career but wasn't able to muster a challenge in any of them. Closers of 71, 71 and 72 left him fourth, fourth and fifth.
Dahmen has been a shot back after three rounds just once on the PGA Tour and it didn't go well. He shot a final-round 75 at the 2020 Heritage and tumbled back to 48th.
Spieth hasn't had much success from one back after 54 holes either. He's gone on to win just once in five attempts - the 2015 Valspar. In the other four he finished 10th, fourth, 19th and second.
Power has never been in this position before.
Day has been one shot back on nine separate occasions across various tours. He didn't manage to win any of them.

Who has the required Pebble Beach form?

When looking at past winners of this event, it's a common theme that almost all had a strong record in the tournament.

The last 10 winners had all previously had a top 16 in this event so let's look at how the leading contenders have fared at Pebble before.

-15 Beau Hossler - has never finished better than 38th in five starts
-15 Andrew Putnam - has never finished better than 38th in four starts
-15 Tom Hoge - finished 12th last year
-14 Patrick Cantlay - posted third place last year and has two other top 11s
-14 Joel Dahmen - has made all four cuts and finished 14th in 2020
-14 Jordan Spieth - won in 2017, third last year and has three other top sevens
-13 Seamus Power - like Hossler and Putnam, his best is 38th (four attempts)
-11 Jason Day - has no less than eight top seven finishes at Pebble

Conclusion

By process of elimination, Hossler, Putnam and Power don't have the required past course form.

Day, Cantlay and Spieth have poor or relatively poor records of getting the win when one shot back.

Dahmen only managed a 71 at Pebble earlier this week, the only one of the eight who didn't shoot 68 or better.

That leaves Tom Hoge. The American was 12th at Pebble last year, shot a 63 there on day one and finished a decent third place on the only time he went into the final round just a shot back.
He'll also have plenty of confidence after finished runner-up at The American Express two weeks ago.
Hoge said after round three: "My game feels good, I was just in the final group in Palm Springs (American Express) a couple weeks ago, so that helps being in that situation.
"My goal coming into the year was try to put myself in this position a little bit more and here we are another chance.
"So just got to go out and just play well again. I certainly felt a lot more comfortable in Palm Springs being there and played well down the stretch (68 in R4) so hopefully that can carry forward here."

Hoge also played in the final group here 12 months ago which could be useful experience to build on.

He recalled: "I was in the last group here with Jordan (Spieth) last year and no crowds so it will be a lot more fun to have people out and have a little excitement there."
If not Hoge, Spieth looks to have the best credentials.

READ MORE: Seamus Power-ing away from the field at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

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