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Open Championship tips: Patrick Cantlay and Shane Lowry ready to pounce if world top three falter

Shane Lowry at St Andrews

With golf’s elite coming to the UK for the 151st Open Championship, golf pundit Brendan Skilling, who runs 19th Hole on Tipstrr, has done his best to narrow down the 156-player field for us.

After the drama in Augusta, New York and Los Angeles, it's now Hoylake's turn as the fourth and final Major of 2023 arrives in England, with Royal Liverpool playing host for the 13th time, the last of which was won by Rory McIlroy in 2014.

McIlroy won with a 17-under-par total in damp weekend conditions that year, but I would expect it to play much tougher this time round. Much like the other hosts of this year's Majors, the Harry Colt-designed Royal Liverpool has undergone renovations since it last hosted in 2014.

With several holes remodelled, narrowed and lengthened, every one of its 7,395 yards will provide a sterner test, while the internal out of bounds will be lurking ominously throughout the course.

After last year's St Andrews birdie fest, we can expect to see par protected a bit better on Merseyside. Tiger Woods famously won here in 2006 without taking his driver out the bag, and again accuracy and placement will be key, with a number of intimidating tee shots lying in wait.
Planet Sport Bet: Top Price On The Planet - unbeatable odds on the top five players

There's also a brand-new 17th hole, a diabolical little par 3 of only 130 yards with danger lurking on all sides - it could well be an innocuous hole such as this that will decide the Championship.

As ever at the Open, much will depend on the weather as links courses tend to rely on wind alongside their pot bunkers and knee-high fescue grass rough as their main lines of defence.
Royal Liverpool is uniquely flat for a links course - there's no towering sand dunes or dramatic land movement here, only subtle bumps and humps and hollows, meaning it can be even more exposed to the wind.
The most comparable courses on the Open rota are Muirfield and Royal Troon, while I'll also be looking at performances at other coastal tracks and courses where finding the fairway is at a premium and players tend to club down from the tee, such as Harbour Town and TPC Sawgrass.
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Of the 'Big 3' at the top of the betting, preference (just) would be for Scottie Scheffler whose record-breaking ball striking run shows no sign of slowing down, and he has now finished in the top five in each of his last eight tournaments - notably winning none of them.

His putter remains stubbornly frigid and he struggled on the slower links greens in East Lothian last week, which does not bode well.

Rory McIlroy arrives on a massive high after last week's dramatic Scottish Open win and he's a previous winner here too.

My main concern for both him and Jon Rahm is that their naturally aggressive styles may land them in trouble around a course that, more often than not, requires a patient and conservative approach.

Patrick Cantlay is exactly that type of player and has a strong claim to be both the best driver and best player in the world outside of the 'big 3'. His much-maligned Major Championship record seems to have turned a corner recently, with a top-15 finish in his last five attempts.

Suggested bet: Patrick Cantlay each-way to win the Open Championship
His missed cut last week at the Scottish Open does not overly concern me after Collin Morikawa (won in 2021) and Cameron Young (runner-up in 2022) have both done likewise in the past couple of years. With seven top-10 finishes in his last 13 outings, Cantlay looks primed to go well around a course that should suit him.
With question marks over many at the top of the market, the driving of Jordan Spieth and Cameron Smith, Viktor Hovland's short game and Tyrell Hatton's temperament, I'm going to side with a proven links operator in Shane Lowry.
The 2019 Open Champion's career is littered with top 10 and top 20 finishes on links courses in the Scottish Open, Irish Open and Dunhill Links Championship, while his current run of five top 20's in his last six outings shows that his game is ticking over nicely.

More importantly, he's gained strokes on the field both in putting and around the green on each of his last three outings.

He has a great chance of joining Padraig Harrington as the second Irishman to lift two Claret Jugs, although not in consecutive years like his compatriot.
Suggested bet: Shane Lowry each-way to win the Open Championship
Brendan Skilling provides golf tips as 19th Hole on Tipstrr
READ MORE: Open Championship - five long shots to follow at Royal Liverpool

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