NFL week seven betting tips: Best free picks and predictions

The Denver Broncos are our focus again on Thursday as they square off with the New Orleans Saints.

Good luck and please gamble responsibly.

 

NFL week seven tips and picks

Denver Broncos ML - 4/6

 

Denver Broncos @ New Orleans Saints (Fri, 1:15am BST)

 

We're going right back to the Broncos for Thursday Night Football. Denver went down by six against the Chargers last week, and now they'll play on a short week against the 2-4 New Orleans Saints.

The Saints also lost last weekend and now face a short turnaround, but some see the return of Sean Payton as a motivating factor.

Payton led New Orleans to 152 wins across 15 seasons as head coach, so surely he should have a fair idea of how to get the better of this group.

His side is targeting a third consecutive win on the road and their defence may seize the opportunity.

The Saints are down a couple of key pieces on offence due to injury, which will only make things harder against this mean Denver defence.

 

 

2024 Record: 7-4, +1.95u

 

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NFL Betting FAQs

 

Betting on the moneyline

The moneyline is a two-way market which gives you the option between betting on the home team or the away team.

If a game finishes level and goes to overtime, teams will continue to play for additional time and your bet is still valid.

 

How does NFL point-spread betting work?

The bookmakers assign a favourite for every match. The favourite will be -1 or greater, whilst the underdog will be +1 or greater.

Think of minus as a deficit to overcome, plus as an advantage to hold on to. If a team is -1, they must win by two clear points to beat the point spread.

If a team is +1, they need to avoid defeat to maintain their advantage and cover the point spread.

In the event the favourite wins by one, the bet is void, or 'pushed', and you'll get your money back.

 

Why bet on the NFL point spread?

The advantage of betting on the point spread is that you get to bet at better odds. Whilst a favourite may be slim pickings at 1/2, for example, they may be as high as 9/10 on the point spread.

You'll need them to win by a certain number of points, but it can be a worthwhile price to pay.

 

How does NFL total betting work?

The bookmakers set the total for each NFL game, which is influenced by historical factors such as results, offensive output and defensive efficiency. Basically, how good or bad a team is with or without the ball.

For example, if the total is set at 50.5, 50 or fewer points means the game has finished under the total, whilst 51 or higher means the game has gone over the total.

Sometimes you'll see whole numbers, such as 50. In the event the game finishes with that number of points, you'll get your money back.

 

Can I combine NFL bets into an acca?

Yes. Doubles, trebles, and accas are all possible when betting on the NFL. Sometimes you'll see these labelled as parlays if you're using an American website.

The advantage of an acca is being able to bet at much bigger odds, whilst the risk is you're more likely to lose your money, albeit a lower stake than backing all four bets separately.

 

Alternative point spreads and alternative total

Because an NFL game can produce a wide-ranging number of points, you have plenty of choices when it comes to betting markets.

For example, if you identify the Kansas City Chiefs should win, but you aren't betting on them to win by five or more points, you can take your pick.

The alternative markets allow you to bet on Kansas -1, -2, -3, -4, -5, and so on. If you're feeling brave and want bigger odds, you may chance -6.

The same logic applies to the points total, so you'll be able to adjust the number as you see fit.

This can be a useful strategy when you want to place an NFL acca but reduce the risk by betting at safer odds.

 

Prop betting

From time to time, you may see Planet Sport use prop bets. A prop bet is anything that doesn't directly determine the outcome of the match.

You can bet on touchdown scorer, number of touchdowns or field goals scored, how many yards the quarterback will throw the ball, player catches, tackles, fumbles, and much more.

 

How we pick our NFL tips

The Planet Sport team has extensive experience in the sports betting industry, including over a decade's worth of experience betting on the NBA, NFL, NHL and MLB.

Each week, our expert runs the rules over the week's fixtures and uses their own systems, plus some tried and tested situations that have stood the test of time, to find mistakes in lines and identify the best NFL picks.