Everton vs Liverpool tips and predictions: Narrow win for Reds in Merseyside derby
- Thomas Ridley
- 23 April 2024
Liverpool will be looking to keep pace with Arsenal and Man City at the top of the table as they travel to Goodison Park to face rivals Everton in the Merseyside derby on Wednesday night (2000 BST).
Tensions are usually high on the banks of the Mersey for this one, but this time it feels different.
The latest chapter in one of English football's fiercest rivalries is set to have a huge impact on both ends of the Premier League table.
Liverpool are just one point and one place behind league leaders Arsenal and know they can't afford to drop points.
They will know that once the full time whistle is blown at around 10pm on Wednesday night, Pep Guardiola's Man City will have two games in hand on them.
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On the other side of Stanley Park, the Toffees secured a vital win against fellow points deductees Nottingham Forest and are now five points above the drop zone.
If Everton were to grab a rare derby win they would be more or less safe for yet another Premier League season, and they would also be making Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool tenure end with a whimper.
However, there's been more chance of winning the lottery than Everton beating Liverpool in recent times, with the Toffees winning just one of the last 29 Merseyside derbies.
Sean Dyche deserves credit for the job he has done this season amid all the uncertainty off the pitch and one thing which he has brought to the club is stability at the back.
Only the top three have conceded fewer goals this season than Everton's 48 and without the points deductions they would have been mid-table.
Klopp's troops have been on top form in front of goal, scoring 75 in the Premier League, and as previously mentioned, have one of the best defences in the league.
Despite Liverpool's sharpness in front of goal, we think this one will be a tight contest with only three of the last 15 derbies producing more than three goals and in that run of 15 there have been six that have produced one goal or less, so we think under 3.5 goals is the way to go.
One person who does love scoring a goal in a Merseyside derby is Mohamed Salah, he has seven goals in 10 appearances against Everton and will also be determined to close the gap on Erling Haaland and Cole Palmer at the top of the Golden Boot standings, so we're backing him to find the back of the net here.
While we think that Liverpool will find a way to win, there have been some patchy performances from Klopp's men in recent weeks and we think they'll just scrape past their rivals, so Liverpool to win with under 2.5 goals is the way to go.
Team news
Everton striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin is a doubt, while Nathan Patterson, Beto, Dele, Lewis Dobbin and Seamus Coleman are all ruled out with injury.
Joel Matip, Conor Bradley and Thiago Alcantara are all ruled out for Liverpool.
Key stats
- Everton have won just one of their last 29 matches against Liverpool
- Only Arsenal have kept more clean sheets this season than Everton's 10
- Liverpool have only scored more than 2.5 goals in two of their last 15 Merseyside derbies
- Liverpool have picked up 32 points on the road this season, only Arsenal have picked up more
- Three of the last four derbies have been 2-0 wins for Liverpool
